I’m going to be happy when this year’s Academy Awards are done. As somebody who has watched the Oscars since 2010, this year has been especially painful on a number of levels. The Academy Awards are a ceremony that has been subjected to ridicule from just about everyone this year. The #OscarsSoWhite protest has taken away all the attention from this year’s films and the ceremony, and obnoxious film snobs who hate the Oscars have used it as justification to post more articles on why the Oscars suck.
Diversity is important and I wish things were different this year. It’s hard to defend the fact that this field is whiter than the Republican presidential primaries. But I can’t help but feel that the Oscars have become the latest victim in our society’s Outrage Culture. People who normally never would have given a shit about the ceremony now feel entitled to spread their opinions about how terrible it is. For fuck’s sake, BALDO, a newspaper comic strip, posted a comic attacking the Oscars in today’s newspaper. http://www.gocomics.com/baldo . You know things are bad when even the newspaper funny sections are against you.
Last year the #OscarsSoWhite protest began, and this year the results were the same. The problem with our society is that we get outraged about anything now, no matter its significance to our lives. Being in a state of perpetual anger means that, because it takes very little to anger people, it becomes easy to distract America from the real problems. I’m not saying that diversity in the entertainment industry isn’t a huge problem. But lack of diversity isn’t just an Oscars problem. It’s an American problem. Out of the hundred people serving in the U.S. Senate, only two are black. Did you know that? My politically savvy friends might, but I doubt most Americans know that. They probably don’t even know who their senators are. Yet everyone knows the Oscars are too white. Maybe we need to get our priorities straight.
When the Charleston massacre happened, the Confederate flag got taken down and stores stopped selling the flag across the country. I supported that. It needed to be done decades ago. But in spite of all that horror, gun control didn’t happen. We got outraged over the confederate flag, justly, but nothing happened to prevent the next massacre. The confederate flag issue overshadowed and distracted from a larger, deeper, more difficult issue ingrained in our society. I think the #OscarsSoWhite protest is the same situation. Once the ceremony is over, everyone will forget about it and move on to something else to be outraged over (Cecil the lion, anyone?).
I have a feeling that after this year, the Oscars will change for the better. Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs seems very aware of the problems, and has been deservedly praised for her response. But don’t pretend that black movie stars getting more recognition at one awards ceremony is a significant victory. Until Americans can discuss real issues in depth, become knowledgeable of and active in our government process, and do more than just hashtag activism and shaming, real changes will continue to remain out of our reach.
Well, that opening was darker than I expected. Sorry about that. Moving on.
As always, I’m not going to predict the following categories: Best Documentary-Feature, Best Animated Short, Best Live Action Short, Best Documentary-Short, and Best Foreign Language Film. This is because I didn’t have the opportunity to see any of the nominees. I will have a section at the bottom for my complete list of predictions, for those who want to print it out and follow along with me during the show. That way if I get something wrong, you can tell me how much I suck over Facebook.
THE PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
What Will Win: The Revenant
What Deserves It: Spotlight
The Academy Awards made a big mistake last year by giving Birdman Best Picture/Director. Not that it wasn’t a great film. It was. But Boyhood, once expected by most people (myself included) of winning those awards ended up with just Best Supporting Actress. Birdman got momentum the month before the Oscars and by the time the ceremony came, Boyhood got left in the dust. It’s a shame because Richard Linklater probably won’t get a chance like that again.
Here, we have a similar situation. I thought for sure Spotlight would win Best Picture, but The Revenant has gained momentum this past month and seems poised to steal Spotlight’s thunder tomorrow. The Revenant ended up winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA for Best Picture/Director, and Alejandro González Iñárritu came home with Best Director at the Director’s Guild Awards. It seems the likely bet to win Best Picture.
Truthfully, both Spotlight and The Revenant are great films that are worthy of the Best Picture award. I wouldn’t mind The Revenant’s win so much if it wasn’t for the fact that Inarritu won Picture and Director JUST LAST YEAR. It makes Boyhood’s loss seem even more jarring and unlucky.
Complaints aside, this is a phenomenal field of nominees. If you haven’t seen any of the eight nominees, you owe it to yourself to check them out. This is a diverse group: a post-apocalyptic sci-fi action film (Mad Max: Fury Road), historical dramas (Spotlight, Bridge of Spies), historical comedy/drama (The Big Short), a science fiction film (The Martian) a period piece romance (Brooklyn) and two survival dramas (Room, The Revenant).
All of the nominees are worthy of being here, and I don’t think any of them are overrated. I considered going more in-depth with the nominees and describing my thoughts on each of them, but that would take too much time and space. What I will say is that you won’t be disappointed by any of them, and you should see all of them. My rankings here are arbitrary. I believe that Room should be #1, and that The Martian should be #8, but any of the nominees in-between are a matter of personal taste. I expect that if I had watched them all in a row, instead of spaced months apart, I might have different rankings. In ranking these, I’m going by memory alone and that memory is subjective.
How I’d Rank the Nominees:
- Room (Not my favorite of the nominees, but one of the most powerful movies I’ve ever seen)
- Spotlight (This one came extremely close to being #1.)
- The Revenant
- Mad Max: Fury Road
- Bridge of Spies
- The Big Short
- Brooklyn
- The Martian
Best Director
Who Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu-The Revenant
Who Deserves To: George Miller would be great, but Iñárritu is worthy.
Great field of directors here. Unfortunately for Adam McKay, Lenny Abrahamson, and Tom McCarthy, their films are superb but simpler than The Revenant or Mad Max: Fury Road. The Big Short, Room, and Spotlight are smaller-scale, story-driven films. The Revenant and Mad Max on the other hand are gigantic achievements in filmmaking, and never could have been accomplished if it wasn’t for Iñárritu or Miller at the helm.
I’ve seen every film Alejandro González Iñárritu has directed. He is emerging as one of the greatest directors working today, and his 2nd Oscar in a row here will cement that reputation. Seriously, this guy has only directed six films and he’s been nominated for nine Oscars. I can’t argue with his win this time. If George Miller wins though, that will be great too. I’m grateful he got nominated for Mad Max, and that the movie got the recognition it deserved.
Best Actor
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio-The Revenant
Who Deserves To: Leonardo DiCaprio-The Revenant
Unless you’ve been attacked by a bear and buried alive for the past year, you should be aware that Leonardo DiCaprio is going to win the Oscar. Seriously, Leo’s performance in The Revenant is taken right out of the “GIVE ME AN OSCAR” playbook. He learned to speak two Native American languages! He learned how to live in the wilderness! He ate a bison liver….raw! He screamed! He cried! http://www.theonion.com/article/leonardo-dicaprio-hopes-he-screamed-and-cried-good-52170
Jokes aside, Leonardo DiCaprio’s performance in The Revenant truly does deserve this win. As much as the “It’s his time” factor is at play, his performance is still the best of the five nominees. I love Bryan Cranston, Eddie Redmayne, and Matt Damon. Their performances this year are very, very good…but not great. Michael Fassbender is excellent and his performance in Steve Jobs is the only one that can equal Leonardo DiCaprio’s.
Some years, there will be an Unbeatable Performance: a role like Colin Firth in The King’s Speech or Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln. Performances where you walk out of the theater going “That’s it. The race is over. No one can top that.” This year, surprisingly, the Best Actor race doesn’t have a nominee like that, though Leo comes close. Things worked out pretty well for Leo this year. No one will be able to dismiss his Oscar win by saying that he won just because “It’s his time”.
I must say though, that I’m going to be terribly sad after tomorrow. All the jokes and memes about Leo not having an Oscar will be gone forever. http://www.starwipe.com/article/leo-dicaprio-nearly-died-you-see-your-whole-oscar–1536 Brilliant articles like that will no longer be relevant! May the jokes about Leo not having an Oscar rest in peace, and enjoy their new life in Meme Heaven.
How I’d rank the nominees:
- Leonardo DiCaprio
- Michael Fassbender
- Bryan Cranston
- Eddie Redmayne
- Matt Damon
Best Actress
Who Will Win: Brie Larson-Room
Who Deserves To: Brie Larson-Room
I said that there isn’t an Unbeatable Performance in the Best Actor category this year…but there is in the Best Actress category. Brie Larson in Room is 2015’s Unbeatable Performance. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say that Brie Larson’s acting in Room is one of the best performances by an actress this decade. All the performances here are excellent, but no one, not even the legendary Cate Blanchett, is going to beat Brie this year.
I’ve never seen a character like Joy Newsome in a movie before. Room is a masterpiece because it takes one of the most horrifying topics imaginable-getting kidnapped and raising your child while trapped in one room-and turns it into a heartbreaking, terrifying, and beautiful depiction of humanity. What makes Brie so phenomenal in it is that, walking out of the movie, I felt like I understood the responsibility and the significance of motherhood. I began to understand the sheer weight of what it means to be a parent and bring a new life into the world. Great art makes you see the world in a new way. Brie Larson did that for me in Room.
Cate Blanchett. What can I say about her that hasn’t already been said? Next to Meryl Streep, Cate is arguably the greatest film actress alive. Her work in Carol is another gift. But Brie is better. I doubt she’ll be disappointed though, since Cate is only 46 and already has 7 nominations and 2 wins under her belt, with plenty more on the horizon.
Saoirse Ronan is wonderful in Brooklyn and you should go watch it. Also, Saoirse Ronan is ridiculously cute and her accent is the most adorable thing ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2Q7SMIQumA
It’s hard to call this a loss for Saoirse since she’s only TWENTY ONE and has already been nominated TWO TIMES for the Academy Award. Meanwhile I’m turning twenty in less than two months, and all I’ve done with my life is be disappointing.
Same with Jennifer Lawrence. 25 years old. Four Oscar nominations already with one win. This is one talented group. I’d say Jennifer Lawrence is my least favorite of these, not because she isn’t great but because Joy is essentially a Jennifer Lawrence Showcase. That’s not to say it isn’t a good movie. But unlike David O. Russell’s other films, where Jennifer Lawrence was great part of a greater whole, this time she’s the one carrying the entire movie on her shoulders. In some ways, that’s a good thing and a sign of just how talented Jennifer is, but Joy lacks the subtlety that the other nominees have. It’s more obviously saying Look How Great Her Acting Is!
Unfortunately, this is the one acting category where I haven’t seen all the nominees. Charlotte Rampling got nominated for the film 45 Years, which JUST came to the Enzian this week. I don’t even think I’ll get around to seeing it in theaters unfortunately, though I’ve heard Rampling is phenomenal. That being said, I’m not too concerned about her pulling an upset. I don’t think she’ll be walking home with an Oscar. Just a hunch. http://www.starwipe.com/article/finally-after-50-years-charlotte-rampling-getting–1831
How I’d rank the nominees:
- Brie Larson
- Cate Blanchett
- Saoirse Ronan
- Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Sylvester Stallone-Creed
Who Deserves To: Sylvester Stallone-Creed
It says a lot about how legendary Rocky Balboa is when, after seven movies, he’s still growing as a character, and people still want to see him. That’s a testament to just how significant Sylvester Stallone’s achievement has been with the Rocky series. In 1976, the first Rocky won Best Picture and Stallone got nominated for Best Actor. Now, almost forty years later, he’s finally going to take home the Oscar for the same role.
Don’t think that this is just a “He’s earned it” Oscar, though. Like Leo, there definitely is a “It’s his time” factor at play here, but I think Stallone genuinely did give an Oscar-worthy performance in Creed. We see Rocky come full circle as a character: once the learner being trained, now the master training someone else. It’s a moving, powerful experience and Stallone truly poured his heart out in the film.
Tom “I want my damn pelts!” Hardy did an awesome job in The Revenant. John Fitzgerald is one of the great villains in recent memory: greedy, cruel, and apathetic. He embodies the evil and destruction that we inflicted upon the Native Americans and their land. Despite this, Fitzgerald is a complicated character and even if we despise him, we understand him. Tom Hardy is one of the great actors working today. Also, I must say, he’s amazing at changing his voice and doing accents. After seeing The Dark Knight Rises I wanted to talk like Bane, and after seeing The Revenant I wanted to talk like John Fitzgerald. They’re just so quotable!
The rest of the nominees are very good, especially Mark Rylance, but Stallone and Hardy are the standouts.
How I’d rank the nominees:
- Sylvester Stallone
- Tom Hardy
- Mark Rylance
- Mark Ruffalo
- Christian Bale (Never could have imagined I’d place Christian Bale last in a ranking of performances. That should tell you how good everyone was this year.)
Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
The Dark Horse: Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs
Who Deserves To: Jennifer Jason Leigh-The Hateful Eight
To begin with, two of these nominees are lead roles. You read that right. Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara are MAIN CHARACTERS in The Danish Girl and Carol. The fact that they got nominated in the supporting category is stupefying.
Here’s something I found under IMDB’s trivia section for Carol:
Rooney Mara’s award season campaign caused controversy due to the studio’s decision to place her in contention as supporting actress. Mara has 71 minutes of screen time, the percentage of her screen time to movie length is 60%. Cate Blanchett, nominated in the leading category, had 6 minutes less screen time than Mara, clocking in at 65 minutes, 54% of run time.
Yeah, that’s right folks! Rooney Mara got MORE SCREEN TIME than Blanchett (who was also in a lead role) but got nominated for supporting instead!
Here’s a spot under The Danish Girl’s trivia page on IMDB:
Alicia Vikander’s Oscar Nomination for Best Actress in a Supporting Role, instead of Leading, was seen by many as a critical category fraud, as her character, Gerda, has more screen time and more dialogue than Eddie Redmayne’s character, Einar/Lili. Vikander has 73:27 minutes of screen time, 61,7% of the movie’s length. However, Redmayne was nominated for Best Lead Actor. Distributor Focus Features decided to campaign for Vikander as supporting actress because they thought it would increase her chances of winning. Vikander has refused to comment on the debate.
Alicia Vikander gives a superb, Oscar-worthy performance in The Danish Girl, and I think she eclipses Eddie Redmayne in the film. That’s saying a LOT. But he got nominated for Lead Actor and she got Supporting Actress. Vikander is a wonderful actress who reached much-deserved superstardom this year. The shame of it is, she gave another Oscar-worthy performance in Ex Machina, which does have her in a supporting role. I think the studio decided to nominate her under the supporting category for The Danish Girl in part because the Academy is biased against science fiction films. It’s a shame because at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, she got two nominations for leading and supporting At the Oscars she only got one nomination, in the wrong category.
Both of these seem like cruel attempts by the studios to get Mara and Vikander a better chance at winning the award, similar to how The Martian got nominated (and won) the Golden Globe for Best Picture-Musical or Comedy (The joke is that a movie about a guy left behind on Mars got treated as a fucking comedy!). Unfortunately, this tactic is probably going to work. Vikander won the Critic’s Choice and the Screen Actors Guild awards for The Danish Girl. She’s likely to win tomorrow.
Kate Winslet could get it, though. Kate has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, making her another likely winner. I expect Vikander will win, since Winslet has already won an Oscar and Vikander was in so much this year. Still, don’t be surprised if Winslet does win. It would be awesome if Kate wins at the same ceremony Leonardo DiCaprio takes home the gold.
Now, I must go to the saddest part of the ceremony (aside from the whole, you know, diversity thing). Jennifer Jason Leigh, what did they do to you? Her role in The Hateful Eight is fantastic. Quentin Tarantino is a master at writing characters, especially villains, and Daisy Domergue is another great addition to his list of creations. Leigh’s performance is gloriously diabolical. And yet, to my shock, Leigh has been snubbed in every major award category this year. I thought for sure she would win after seeing The Hateful Eight but now it seems unlikely. What a shame.
Rachel McAdams is good, but her role in Spotlight doesn’t give her much to work with. It’s a good role, played well, but not a stand-out. Still, I love Rachel McAdams and I’m glad she’s nominated.
How I’d rank the nominees that are actually supporting performances:
- Jennifer Jason Leigh
- Kate Winslet
- Rachel McAdams
Not Actually Supporting Performances:
- Alicia Vikander
- Rooney Mara
The Other Awards
I considered doing a full write-up on every category this year. Unfortunately, I’m writing this on Saturday the day before the Oscars, because school has been overwhelming me recently. I don’t have the time or the space to do a complete write up for every single category. Instead I will leave you my predictions. I think Mad Max could win for Best Visual Effects, but Star Wars seems like a strong choice too.
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song: Til It Happens To You-The Hunting Ground
Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
TL;DR Section.
Here are the complete list of predictions in a printer-friendly, easy to read format.
Best Picture: The Revenant
Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu-The Revenant
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio-The Revenant
Best Actress: Brie Larson-Room
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone-Creed
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Original Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song: Til It Happens To You-The Hunting Ground
Best Sound Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Production Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costume Design: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
THE DRINKING GAME
In writing this list of predictions, I realized something unfortunate. My writing wasn’t very funny. Normally I pride myself on my acerbic wit and sarcasm, but this time I found myself lacking. In order to liven this piece up, I decided to come up with a new idea for this year’s Oscars. Inspired by Matt Taibbi’s drinking games for each Republican presidential debate, I thought I would write a drinking game of my own. There’s some irony in this, because I have never had any alcoholic beverage in my entire life (Which is why I’m so popular at parties!). So, if you are one who drinks, this can be a great way to make your Oscars watch party even more entertaining. Of course, always abide by the law, and try not to die. When you wake up the day after the ceremony wasted and vomiting, let me know how it went, assuming you can remember what happened.
THE RULES
Drink every time somebody comments on the lack of diversity in Hollywood.
Drink every time you see a black person who isn’t Chris Rock.
Drink every time the music begins to play when a person’s speech goes on too long.
Drink every time a joke is told, and the camera cuts to somebody in the audience who isn’t laughing.
Drink every time a joke is censored.
Drink every time somebody winning an award for Mad Max: Fury Road says “What a lovely day!”
Drink every time someone mentions the bear in the The Revenant.
Drink every time you see somebody on stage presenting an Oscar who has no chance of ever winning an Oscar. Examples include Jennifer Lopez, Mark Wahlberg, Adam Sandler, etc.
Drink if Leonardo DiCaprio mentions an activist cause in his acceptance speech, like environmental protection or indigenous people’s rights.
Drink if somebody makes a joke involving rape or sexual abuse in reference to the movie Spotlight.
Drink if somebody mentions or makes a joke about Charlotte Gainsburg’s comments that #OscarsSoWhite is racist to white people.
Drink if somebody mentions the Flint Water Crisis.
Drink if someone makes a transgender joke.
Drink if someone mentions Sean Penn and El Chapo.
Drink if someone says Creed or Straight Outta Compton should’ve been nominated for Best Picture, or another major award.
Drink if somebody references the 2016 US presidential election or a presidential candidate.
Drink if somebody jokes about Donald Trump deporting someone. Drink extra if that person is Alejandro González Iñárritu.
Drink if somebody makes a joke about Trump’s border wall plan.
Drink if somebody jokes about Donald Trump’s hair.
Drink every time Michael Fassbender and Alicia Vikander are shown together. Not because of a game, but because they’re so perfect that you hate yourself and have to drink to ease the pain of realizing you’ll never be as beautiful and talented as they are. You’ll never be as skilled as Fassbender, or as handsome. You’ll never get to be at the Oscars, sitting with a woman as beautiful, smart, and talented as Alicia. You’ll never even be invited to the Oscars, with or without a woman. You’ll never make it in the movie industry. You’re nothing.
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